Monday, November 21, 2011

Before Black Friday Shopping- Top 10 Things You Should Know



1) Look-up the Specs:  Lots of deals can be disguised in the specs.  So understand the specs you “must “have and then evaluate the deal.  Example- you may find a great deal on an HDTV and you see that it is 1080P, 46 inches and LED.  You think you are all set however you didn’t realize its 60 Hertz (so fast action sports may not be optimal on this set).  Additionally the set only had 2 HDMI inputs.  As a result you can connect your Satellite TV Service and your Blu-Ray player but not your Gaming system or surround sound.  Although it was a good deal, it’s a product you will grow tired of soon.

    2) Look at your WHOLE basket:  Often one item savings can predict where you want to shop for Black Friday.  However, many people buy multiple items on Black Friday and the savings on one of them can be offset by the lack of savings on the other.  It may be worth paying a little more on one of your items if it means you get the secondary items at a better deal. 

3) Decide Broad Line or Specialty Store: Many consumers realize after they endure the long lines and crowds to get their prized Black Friday purchase, the chance of getting to another store to get another prize purchase is greatly reduced because most stores have limited quantity inventory on Black Friday.  Let’s face it, a parking spot is hard to get at a second store much less that $99 camera quantity 2 per store!   Choosing a broad line store that carries an array of products from electronics, appliances, clothing, shoes, tools, jewelry etc. can increase your chance of getting another prize buy in a different category.  Stores like Wal-Mart, Target or Sears offer a broad array of products without having to leave the store and may be able to check them all at one register.  Other stores that specialize in electronics, clothing or furniture may provide one prize purchase but leave you desiring more unless you are infatuated with the category they sell.


4) Pre-Shop for Efficiency:  If you really want to get in, get what you want and get out- pre shop!  Find out days before where the item you want will be on the floor.  Black Friday can turn a store you are familiar with upside-down.   Bulk stacks in isles and shopping carts by the registers can present merchandise where it is not normally located.  Retailers may put door busters in the back of the store to get customers to walk through the store to get the prize item.  Ask the store associates where the items you want will be located so you will be fast an efficient while others are seeking out an associate asking where something is.

5) Check On-line for Preview Shopping: Some retailers will put Black Friday deals on-line before the store opens as a function of getting their site up and running.  You may be able to score that item without leaving your house.  WARNING- expect slow response times as site traffic may bog down performance.  Make sure you are on the fastest internet you can get to not contribute to the problem.  Also note- not all door busters are available on-line.

6) Look for “One Per Customer” Offers or Else:  I have heard stories at one retailer that had a great deal on TV’s with limited quantities per store.  After waiting all night, the first person in line asked the clerk- “How many do you have?”.   When the clerk informed her they had 15 of the TV’s, the customer said “I’ll take’em” creating a near riot in the store and some physical altercations because others had stood outside all night for the deal.  Knowing the store you shop is planning on allowing one per person will prevent you from being disappointed.

7) Divide and Conquer: Having a shopping partner with you can really allow you to split up in store to get the multiple items you want.  Also, safety in numbers if you are waiting out in line all night.

8) BYOB: You may want to “Bring Your Own Bag”.  If shopping carts are not in the store or if they are all taken, you may find lots of smaller impulse items you want but pass up due to physical ability to carry.  Having a nice shopping bag that you can put the items into is handy.

9) Cash or Credit:  If you are the paranoid type you may want to safely bring cash with you that can cover your purchase.  Reason is credit cards will be stressing the point of sale systems on busy shopping days.  If you are buying something that is coming from a warehouse and being delivered (with minimum quantities) you run the risk of having a payment processing problem while other stores are ringing sales eating up the limited inventory.  So cash is king and as long as the register is working, the payment can be accepted.  Again, this may be rare but is a possibility.

10) Bring the Ad:  If you are buying something that is in print advertisement- bring it!  If there is any confusion you can always reference the ad.  Customers often misinterpret ads and stores at times have a mis-print.  Having the ad as opposed to your memory can be handy.

But Wait!  There's More- BONUS TIP

11.  Understand the MAP (Manufacturers Advertise Price):  Often many manufacturers have MAP policies- (Manufacturers Advertised Pricing).  This means retailers CAN NOT show the price they are willing to sell a product for.  You often will see in a circular “priced lower in store” or “before $x savings”.  This is due to MAP policies.  Other times some stores will “blind the brand” meaning they will show the item (say a TV) but not the brand (ex. Samsung).  The store will advertising “Brand name 1080P LED TV for $1,000 save $400”.  This is because the brand won’t allow their product to be shown at $1,000.  Call the store and ask for the brand name.  A retailer will tell you the brand and are allowed by law to set their own retail price in store.  Advertising it is another matter.  Watch out for retailers who blind a less aspirational brand or bad brand hoping you will come in to the store.
Happy shopping and have a very Black Friday!

MarketingGr8nes
Not a Declaration, An Aspiration

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Some Economics Thoughts Going Into Holiday

It’s that time of year again where we stuff ourselves at the Thanksgiving table and then stuff our cars in the wee hours following with early AM deals.  Consumers normally turn out in droves for Holiday deals and if the economy is any indicator I believe this year could be a boom or a bust depending on which lens you view the holidays through.  Let’s take a quick peek at what we are seeing economically.

Consumer spending/consumption is down in Q3 vs. LY while unemployment Jan YOY down but still high at around 9%.  So even with some better employment numbers consumers appear conservative at first glance as more are working but consumption is down.



When looking at what consumers are spending on you can see durables are down Q3 YOY going into the Holliday season where durables can spike when you think of gifts like big screen TVs or new stoves in time for holiday feasts or items to touch up the home in time for visitors. 



The question is where consumers are spending before Black Friday, and it appears it is not on apparel.   As the spending in this area appears to be down dramatically.  This in some respects could be the reason why some retailers like Target or even Wal-Mart may have a renewed focus on the consumable business.  If apparel isn’t driving the transactions and footsteps into the store then food may be the ticket to create frequency into the store.  Everyone's “gotta eat”.  See the apparel consumption trends YOY to the right.

As we step back and look at the disposable income (left) being way down YOY as of Q3. It could lead us to predict the lines might not be as long this shopping season. 




So disposable income is down.  Are the consumers just hording their dollars in savings ready to unleash on Black Friday or before Christmas?  Looking at the chart to the right, the answer would be no as year over year savings is down too.


I am not a Swami and don’t have a crystal ball (at least one that works) but one theory is money is tight and getting the most out of your disposable income means Black Friday shopping is a must this holiday.  It looks as if stretching the dollar is not only desirable, it’s necessary.  The question is, even if the will to shop big on Black Friday/Holiday is there, will the bank account and disposable income be available to take full advantage of the shopping time period?  If not, does the return to over extending on credit make a come back?  To be determined.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS

Data from U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analyisis